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Economy Poised to Reach $5 Trillion by 2026, Predicts Economist Arvind Panagariya

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India has recently secured its position as the world’s fifth-largest economy, following the USA, China, Japan, and Germany. Economist Arvind Panagariya expressed optimism on Friday, suggesting that India could potentially claim the spot as the world’s third-largest economy by the end of 2026, a timeline sooner than many current predictions.

Panagariya, a former Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog and currently an Economics professor at Columbia University, pointed out that over the past two decades, India has sustained an impressive annual average growth rate of 10.22 percent in current dollars. Based on this growth trajectory, he projected that India’s GDP in current dollars could reach $5 trillion by 2026 and $5.5 trillion by 2027.

As of now, India holds the fifth position globally, with GDP figures for 2022 standing at $3.4 trillion, while Germany and Japan reported $4.1 trillion and $4.2 trillion, respectively. Panagariya highlighted Japan’s unusual downturn in 2022, attributing it to a substantial appreciation of the dollar against the Japanese yen. He emphasized that the dollar’s value at the end of 2022 was 13.9 percent higher than at the beginning of the year.

Regarding Germany, Panagariya noted its current economic challenges, with the IMF predicting negative growth in real terms in the euro. While high inflation and the euro’s appreciation in 2023 are expected to provide some assistance, he projected a modest growth in Germany’s GDP to $4.4 trillion. However, with inflation likely to decline sharply in the coming years, the GDP in current dollars is anticipated to grow at a maximum of 4 percent annually.

Panagariya emphasized the need for India to realize its economic potential by implementing reforms that encourage the growth of small habitations, farms, and enterprises. He advocated for measures that would enable larger economic units in industry and services, creating job opportunities and facilitating the migration of workers from rural to urban areas. This, he believes, would increase land per worker in farming and concentrate the population in urban agglomerations, allowing for the replacement of smaller economic units in various sectors.

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Economy

Yes Bank Share: Yes Bank Shares Surge by 11 Percent, Impact of RBI’s Decision

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Yes Bank Stock: A bullish trend is observed in Yes Bank’s shares today. The surge in the company’s shares is attributed to the approval given to HDFC Bank Group to acquire up to 9.5% stake in the bank.

Yes Bank Share Price: During Tuesday’s trading session, the private sector Yes Bank witnessed a remarkable surge of 11%, and by noon, the company’s share was trading at Rs. 25.35. It’s been a long time since such a surge has been witnessed in Yes Bank. So far, in today’s trading, Yes Bank has touched a high of Rs. 25.70 and a low of Rs. 23.

Reasons Behind the Surge: The surge in Yes Bank’s shares is due to a decision by the RBI, which allows HDFC Bank Group to hold up to 9.50% stake in Yes Bank. Yes Bank has informed the stock market that as per Regulation 30 of the SEBI Regulation 2015, RBI has allowed HDFC Bank Group to maintain a cross-holding in Yes Bank. Yes Bank received this information from RBI on February 5, 2024. After this, HDFC Bank can hold a stake of up to 9.50% in Yes Bank.

Permission Granted to Increase Stake in Other Banks: RBI has also allowed HDFC Group to increase its stake in other banks such as IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, and Bandhan Bank by up to 9.50%. It is worth mentioning that this permission is related to investment by HDFC AMC, HDFC Agro, and HDFC Life Insurance. However, if HDFC Bank Group fails to acquire a stake in these companies within the next year, this permission will automatically be canceled.

Yes Bank’s Business: Yes Bank is a private sector bank. In the financial year 2022-23, the company had a revenue of Rs. 22,702 crore. During this period, the company made a profit of Rs. 736 crore. Meanwhile, in the December quarter of the current financial year, the company had a revenue of Rs. 6,989 crore and a profit of Rs. 243 crore.

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Gold and Silver Soar; Check Today’s Rates for 10 Grams of Gold in Delhi

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The price of silver in the commodity market has surged to INR 75,765 per kilogram with a rapid increase of INR 339, indicating a strong trend in the precious metals market. The market participants actively engaged in fresh trades contributed to the uptrend in gold prices in the national capital. In Delhi, gold witnessed a rapid rise of INR 300, reaching INR 63,350 per 10 grams on Friday. Similarly, the price of silver strengthened by INR 400, reaching INR 79,500 per kilogram, showing robustness compared to the previous trading session when it closed at INR 79,100 per kilogram, as reported by HDFC Securities.

The surge in gold prices can be attributed to its robust performance in the international market, reaching $2,050 per ounce, while silver also saw an increase, reaching $24.45 per ounce. Gold was trading at $2,050 per ounce in the COMEX market, surpassing the global markets by more than $13 compared to the previous close. According to senior analyst Jinsu Gandhi from HDFC Securities, the decline in the US growth rate in the third quarter, coupled with the Dollar Index hitting its lowest level since August at the beginning of December, contributed to the rise in gold prices.

In the futures market, amidst strong demand, gold prices experienced an increase of INR 206, reaching INR 62,763 per 10 grams with a rise of 0.42%. The futures contract for delivery in February 2024 saw a turnover of 15,325 lots. Market analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to the active participation of traders in fresh trades.

In the commodity exchange, the price of silver rose to INR 75,765 per kilogram with a rapid increase of INR 339. The delivery contract for March 2024 on the Multi Commodity Exchange showed a price of INR 339, reflecting a rise of 0.45%. The contract witnessed a trading volume of 15,272 lots. On the global front, the price of silver in New York rose by 0.63%, reaching $24.74 per ounce.

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Economy

Year Ender 2023: Nifty Delivers 18% Returns, Midcaps and Smallcaps Break Records, IPO Investments Shine

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Various global firms have revised their ratings for India along with GDP growth forecasts, leading to BSE-listed companies surpassing the highest market cap level of 4 trillion dollars. NSX has now become the world’s 7th largest exchange, surpassing the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The year 2023 is coming to a close, marking an exceptional year for stock market investors. NSE Nifty has crossed 21,500, while Sensex is beyond 71,000. Investors have reaped substantial gains, as sentiments saw a significant boost in November and December, according to a report by Motilal Oswal Broking and Distribution.

Both macro and micro fundamentals in India are robust, contributing to reaching new heights in the market. Nifty has provided a return of 18% so far in 2023. Mid-cap and small-cap segments have shown significant growth, with Nifty Midcap100 rising by 44% and Nifty Smallcap100 by 54%. Purchases in several key sectors, including PSU, realty, auto, as well as electricity, defense, shipping, fertilizers, and IT, have witnessed significant interest. PSU banks have outperformed private banks, maintaining a steady 1% ROE and showing signs of improved earnings.

After a surge in the secondary market, the IPO market also remained lively. This year saw 58 IPOs entering the market, raising a fund of 48,000 crores compared to 40 IPOs last year (totaling 64,000 crores). The pipeline for new-age tech IPOs, including Ola Electric, Swiggy, FirstCry, and Mobikwik, remains strong, anticipating rapid growth.

The collective efforts of various global firms have resulted in an improvement in India’s ratings, coupled with GDP growth forecasts. Consequently, BSE-listed companies have exceeded a market cap of 4 trillion dollars, surpassing even the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to become the 7th largest exchange in the world.

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