Analysis: Why BJP Poses a Formidable Challenge for Opposition in 2024

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi signals the commencement of preparations for the 2024 General Elections, his key ally Amit Shah is already actively engaged in the groundwork. The recently conducted exit polls for Assembly elections have exhibited significant variations, often deviating from actual results. Past analysis of exit polls for states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh suggests a tendency to underestimate BJP’s seat projections and inflate Congress or other parties’ seat numbers. This bias arises from a media perspective that often interprets the BJP through the lens of the Congress or the Left. Aware of this bias, both Modi and Shah maintain a reserved relationship with the media, given historical hostilities. Despite such biases, the BJP secured notable victories in states like Rajasthan, with the electorate expressing pro-incumbency sentiments. The outcome in Chhattisgarh highlighted the voter’s inclination to remove governments perceived as corrupt or lacking in governance. Shah and party President J P Nadda are actively enhancing the efficiency of the BJP’s election machinery, reinforcing the party’s stronghold, while Modi’s commitment to India’s development vision resonates with voters, making the opposition’s task of breaching “Fort BJP” exceedingly challenging.