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The Chinese economy is struggling. Here are the problems:

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China, once a driving force of global growth, is now grappling with its own economic slowdown, causing alarm among international leaders and investors. The country’s recent economic struggles stand in stark contrast to its role as a stabilizing force in the world economy, marking a significant shift.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has fallen over 20% from its peak in January, officially entering a bear market. The Chinese yuan has also dropped to its lowest level in 16 years, prompting unprecedented intervention from the central bank to defend its value against the dollar.

The primary issue is the deceleration of growth. Despite an initial burst of activity following the easing of Covid-related restrictions earlier this year, growth has plateaued. Consumer prices are declining, the real estate sector is facing a deepening crisis, and exports are slumping. The severity of youth unemployment has led the government to stop releasing data on the matter.

Adding to these concerns, a major homebuilder and an influential investment company have recently failed to meet their payment obligations to investors. These events have reignited fears that the ongoing housing market turmoil could amplify financial stability risks.

China’s response to these challenges has not been sufficient to reignite domestic demand, and concerns of contagion have triggered a wave of downward revisions to growth forecasts. Prominent investment banks, including UBS, Nomura, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays, have lowered their predictions for China’s economic growth to below 5%.

The prospect of missing the official growth target of “around 5.5%” is a blow to the leadership under President Xi Jinping. This shift in circumstances is a far cry from China’s role during the global financial crisis in 2008, when it spearheaded massive stimulus efforts, and the initial months of the pandemic, when it was the sole major developed economy to avoid recession.

One of the key factors in China’s economic decline is its real estate market. Defaults by major developers like Country Garden and Zhongrong Trust have alarmed investors and reignited memories of the Evergrande crisis in 2021. Despite government efforts to bolster the real estate sector, even strong players are on the verge of default, underscoring the complexity of the crisis.

In summary, China’s economic slowdown has shifted its position from a global growth engine to a source of concern. Challenges in the real estate market, declining growth, and financial instability risks have prompted downward revisions in forecasts and raised questions about the effectiveness of China’s response strategies.

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Economy

Yes Bank Share: Yes Bank Shares Surge by 11 Percent, Impact of RBI’s Decision

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Yes Bank Stock: A bullish trend is observed in Yes Bank’s shares today. The surge in the company’s shares is attributed to the approval given to HDFC Bank Group to acquire up to 9.5% stake in the bank.

Yes Bank Share Price: During Tuesday’s trading session, the private sector Yes Bank witnessed a remarkable surge of 11%, and by noon, the company’s share was trading at Rs. 25.35. It’s been a long time since such a surge has been witnessed in Yes Bank. So far, in today’s trading, Yes Bank has touched a high of Rs. 25.70 and a low of Rs. 23.

Reasons Behind the Surge: The surge in Yes Bank’s shares is due to a decision by the RBI, which allows HDFC Bank Group to hold up to 9.50% stake in Yes Bank. Yes Bank has informed the stock market that as per Regulation 30 of the SEBI Regulation 2015, RBI has allowed HDFC Bank Group to maintain a cross-holding in Yes Bank. Yes Bank received this information from RBI on February 5, 2024. After this, HDFC Bank can hold a stake of up to 9.50% in Yes Bank.

Permission Granted to Increase Stake in Other Banks: RBI has also allowed HDFC Group to increase its stake in other banks such as IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, and Bandhan Bank by up to 9.50%. It is worth mentioning that this permission is related to investment by HDFC AMC, HDFC Agro, and HDFC Life Insurance. However, if HDFC Bank Group fails to acquire a stake in these companies within the next year, this permission will automatically be canceled.

Yes Bank’s Business: Yes Bank is a private sector bank. In the financial year 2022-23, the company had a revenue of Rs. 22,702 crore. During this period, the company made a profit of Rs. 736 crore. Meanwhile, in the December quarter of the current financial year, the company had a revenue of Rs. 6,989 crore and a profit of Rs. 243 crore.

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Economy

Gold and Silver Soar; Check Today’s Rates for 10 Grams of Gold in Delhi

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The price of silver in the commodity market has surged to INR 75,765 per kilogram with a rapid increase of INR 339, indicating a strong trend in the precious metals market. The market participants actively engaged in fresh trades contributed to the uptrend in gold prices in the national capital. In Delhi, gold witnessed a rapid rise of INR 300, reaching INR 63,350 per 10 grams on Friday. Similarly, the price of silver strengthened by INR 400, reaching INR 79,500 per kilogram, showing robustness compared to the previous trading session when it closed at INR 79,100 per kilogram, as reported by HDFC Securities.

The surge in gold prices can be attributed to its robust performance in the international market, reaching $2,050 per ounce, while silver also saw an increase, reaching $24.45 per ounce. Gold was trading at $2,050 per ounce in the COMEX market, surpassing the global markets by more than $13 compared to the previous close. According to senior analyst Jinsu Gandhi from HDFC Securities, the decline in the US growth rate in the third quarter, coupled with the Dollar Index hitting its lowest level since August at the beginning of December, contributed to the rise in gold prices.

In the futures market, amidst strong demand, gold prices experienced an increase of INR 206, reaching INR 62,763 per 10 grams with a rise of 0.42%. The futures contract for delivery in February 2024 saw a turnover of 15,325 lots. Market analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to the active participation of traders in fresh trades.

In the commodity exchange, the price of silver rose to INR 75,765 per kilogram with a rapid increase of INR 339. The delivery contract for March 2024 on the Multi Commodity Exchange showed a price of INR 339, reflecting a rise of 0.45%. The contract witnessed a trading volume of 15,272 lots. On the global front, the price of silver in New York rose by 0.63%, reaching $24.74 per ounce.

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Economy

Year Ender 2023: Nifty Delivers 18% Returns, Midcaps and Smallcaps Break Records, IPO Investments Shine

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Various global firms have revised their ratings for India along with GDP growth forecasts, leading to BSE-listed companies surpassing the highest market cap level of 4 trillion dollars. NSX has now become the world’s 7th largest exchange, surpassing the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The year 2023 is coming to a close, marking an exceptional year for stock market investors. NSE Nifty has crossed 21,500, while Sensex is beyond 71,000. Investors have reaped substantial gains, as sentiments saw a significant boost in November and December, according to a report by Motilal Oswal Broking and Distribution.

Both macro and micro fundamentals in India are robust, contributing to reaching new heights in the market. Nifty has provided a return of 18% so far in 2023. Mid-cap and small-cap segments have shown significant growth, with Nifty Midcap100 rising by 44% and Nifty Smallcap100 by 54%. Purchases in several key sectors, including PSU, realty, auto, as well as electricity, defense, shipping, fertilizers, and IT, have witnessed significant interest. PSU banks have outperformed private banks, maintaining a steady 1% ROE and showing signs of improved earnings.

After a surge in the secondary market, the IPO market also remained lively. This year saw 58 IPOs entering the market, raising a fund of 48,000 crores compared to 40 IPOs last year (totaling 64,000 crores). The pipeline for new-age tech IPOs, including Ola Electric, Swiggy, FirstCry, and Mobikwik, remains strong, anticipating rapid growth.

The collective efforts of various global firms have resulted in an improvement in India’s ratings, coupled with GDP growth forecasts. Consequently, BSE-listed companies have exceeded a market cap of 4 trillion dollars, surpassing even the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to become the 7th largest exchange in the world.

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